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Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta urges his players to be the best version of themselves as they head into their final six games of the season as just two points separate the top three clubs in the Premier League.

Jones Knows takes aim at the football feast across the weekend in the Premier League and the FA Cup, sprinkling his betting insight and analysis across the card.

Luton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Luton are hanging on in there. We’re on them to stay up at 3/1 from earlier this season which is now an 11/8 shot, so the bet is technically in a good spot – especially when you look at their run-in.

After this fixture, which I think they’ll win at 21/10 with Sky Bet, it’s Wolves (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a) and Fulham (h) on the final day. It’s a kind run of fixtures that does leave a regressing and confidence-sapped Everton very vulnerable – you can get 9/2 for the Toffees to get relegated which looks a price that will shorten between now and the end of the campaign.

Issa Kabore is likely to come back into the Luton side for this clash after being ineligible for the defeat at Manchester City and he’s worth backing to get fouled at least twice in the game at 5/4 with Sky Bet based on his recent fouls won data. He’s won 17 fouls in his last seven starts, to an average of 2.4 per 90 minutes with his tricky style and canny ability to go down under, let’s say, minimal contact, leading to referees awarding fouls in his direction.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Sheffield United vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm

The Premier League goal rush has made the total goal markets go a little bonkers this season with some very high goal expectancy lines for games involving two goal-heavy teams. Yet, there are also times where the overall average can affect a market too much, like this one, where under goals simply has to be the play for a game involving the two worst attacks in the Premier League.

My confidence is returning backing an under goal line after finding a couple of winners in recent weeks with Burnley vs Bournemouth and Burnley vs Brighton both copping returns at odds-against prices. Good prices are lurking. And that’s the case here.

Sheffield United have averaged 0.94 goals scored per game this season – the worst in the league – while Burnley have averaged exactly one goal per this season – the joint-second worst in the league.

Under 2.5 goals is priced up as the outsider of the over/under line with 6/5 with Sky Bet on offer which looks very appealing in what could descend into a proper dud of a game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Manchester City vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.15pm, FA Cup semi-final – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Manchester City have a vulnerable record in FA Cup semi-finals under Pep Guardiola.

This is always a fixture that causes them problems in that it falls bang in the middle of a hectic period of Champions League and Premier League matches where every game is so intense. And boy was that Real Madrid game intense on Wednesday.

City’s record of winning just two of their six FA Cup semi-finals under Guardiola’s watch is mediocre. Arsenal have dispatched them twice in 2017 and 2020, Liverpool managed it in 2022 and Chelsea beat them 1-0 in 2021 to end their quadruple bid.

And the victories they mustered came against Sheffield United last season when they were a Sky Bet Championship outfit and against Brighton when Chris Hughton was in charge, so not the dangerous and exciting Seagulls team of today.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions in 90 minutes if you include the Carabao Cup final and have scored 26 goals in their last eight games, averaging over three goals a game. They’ve scored five goals against Man City already this season too, so it’s not that hard to make a case for Mauricio Pochettino’s team when analysing all the evidence. Chelsea at 5/2 with Sky Bet to qualify feels a little too big to ignore.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Wolves vs Arsenal, Saturday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

This could have been a really fiddly fixture under the lights at Molineux for Arsenal but Wolves’ injury issues make this simpler than it might’ve been.

Matheus Cunha, Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-Chan are all unavailable in some form again – it’s a borderline irreplaceable trio meaning it’s hard to see Wolves scoring against this majestic Arsenal defence.

Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in their last five Premier League away games, not conceding a goal for 451 minutes. It’s a defence that have been the best team defensively away from home in the Premier League this season – conceding the fewest goals (11), keeping the most clean sheets (9) and producing the lowest expected goals against (11.6).

The Gunners, since the start of last season, are working at a 56 per cent win to nil ratio away from home in the Premier League, so that looks a big runner here at 6/5 with Sky Bet.

Arsenal have won the last two at Molineux without conceding – two looks set to become three.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Everton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

I’ve always tended to look positively about what Sean Dyche is doing at Everton under huge restraints.

The underlying metrics have been strong despite poor results, Goodison Park is a tough place to play and Dyche himself is a manager with a underrated record at this level.

But I’m losing faith – quickly.

They’re in a rut and may not get out of it over the next six games. Just one win in their last 15 Premier League games and scoring just 10 goals in that period is quite frankly pathetic. It’s relegation worthy results.

But one thing that has been propping them up all season has been their exemplary defending – it’s why I’ve stuck with them in some tough times. But now, that defence that was once a rock is now a sieve. Holes are appearing.

Their expected goals against metrics in their last seven games has plummeted to 1.90 per 90 – it’s fifth worst in the Premier League over that time. And they’ve not played anyone higher than sixth during that spell.

I’ve got so much more faith in Nottingham Forest’s forward line with Morgan Gibbs-White likely to be head and shoulders the best attacker player on that Goodison Park pitch. They’ve won four of their last five expected goals battles and have scored in every one of those five matches. I think Forest will score – and that should be enough for them not to lose the game as Everton are incapable of scoring more than once in a Premier League game in their current form.

Take your pick on the pro-Forest angles that are dancing in value. Forest on the double chance at 8/11 with Sky Bet looks very tasty as does the draw no bet option at 6/4. If you fancy the away win at 5/2 then adding Gibbs-White to score or assist to the party at 5/1 looks a shrewd play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Nottingham Forest double chance (8/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here) & Morgan Gibbs-White to score or assist in a Forest win (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth, Sunday 3pm

I’m not too worried about a potential hangover from Villa’s draining midweek penalty shoot-out win over Lille. The last nine Premier League teams to go to penalties in a European knockout match have remained unbeaten in their next match with seven of them winning. Villa can use that momentum to their advantage and look fair enough to me at 5/6 with Sky Bet for the home win.

The total match offside line is also worth a look with five or more priced up at 6/5 with Sky Bet – that looks a generous line. We know all about Villa’s high line that has caught their opponents offside 147 times this season – that’s an average of 4.5 per game. But Bournemouth do like to squeeze the game too, especially of late where they’ve caught the opposition offside 10 times in the last four games. I can see this game hitting that line of five or more – like it did in the reverse fixture.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Crystal Palace vs West Ham, Sunday 3pm

Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. What a duo.

The dynamic pair started at Anfield for the first time together since Crystal Palace’s 3-2 win over Sheffield United in January and Palace looked a completely different beast, looking so much more confident in possession and creating plenty of fruitful attacking moments.

Since the start of last season, in the 28 Premier League games where Eze and Olise have both started, Palace have a win percentage of 46 per cent and average 1.4 goals per 90 minutes. Contrast that to the 42 games without at least one of them starting those numbers drop dramatically to a win percentage of 14 per cent and 0.9 goals scored per 90 minutes.

With the shrewd addition of the very exciting Adam Wharton, this Palace team – with Eze and Olise fit and firing – look capable of positing some impressive attacking returns under Oliver Glasner in their remaining fixtures and I’ll be backing them when the prices are right – which they are here.

West Ham are 14 games without a clean sheet in the Premier League and their overall defensive metrics since the turn of the year are horrendous. They’ve conceded the third most goals of any team in those 14 games (28) and their expected goals against per 90 figure is 2.14 which is the second worst of any team for that period, behind only Luton.

Palace scoring two or more goals is odds against at 10/11 with Sky Bet, which has to be one of the best prices of the weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crystal Palace to score two or more goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Coventry vs Manchester United, Sunday 3.30pm, FA Cup semi-final – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Coventry will be hoping to channel the legacy of Keith Houchin and his diving header from the 1987 FA Cup final win over Tottenham. One of my favourite FA Cup final goals that one.

This is a fascinating semi-final as Manchester United could just be there for the taking although giant-killings are rarely seen once we get to this stage.

United’s extra quality in the final third is likely to win them this game, not their style of play that continues to baffle. Are they trying to play a low block and also be a pressing team? It’s weird.

And they’re going to allow Coventry to venture towards their goal at regular intervals. Like many teams against United, it will be the shots and corner count that will take a hammering rather than their goals against column.

The United corners conceded numbers remains out of control, shipping 119 in their last 12 Premier League games – again, the most of any Premier League team in that period. An average of 9.9 per game.

With the Coventry line only set at five or more corners here at 5/6 with Sky Bet, it simply must be attacked. The Sky Blues have won the second most corners in the Sky Bet Championship this season, so their style of play does tend to force them. Going on previous form, even the higher Coventry corners lines 10 or more at 16/1 and 12 or more at 33/1 might be runners at big prices.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Fulham vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Since Rodrigo Muniz came into the Fulham team in January, Fulham have become one of the most dangerous attacking forces in the Premier League. Muniz’s eight goals has certainly been the catalyst for their improved numbers but as a team their whole process is functioning beautifully at the moment.

Over the last 12 Premier League games, only Liverpool and Man City are averaging more shots per game (17) and only Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal average more shots from inside the box per game (12.3). In that time they’ve beaten Bournemouth, Man Utd, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham – and should have made their dominance pay in the first half against Newcastle – a game they somehow went onto lose. This all equates to impressive form.

So, with Liverpool’s midfield looking on the brink of malfunctioning and their strikers misfiring, Fulham look a backable prospect at 6/4 with Sky Bet to avoid defeat and 9/2 outright for victory.

Willian to score at 11/2 jumps out, too.

Surprisingly, he hasn’t scored since netting in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg between these two at Anfield but after a spell of injuries, he looked his sparky self in the win at West Ham. He’s the likely Fulham penalty taker too which is always a bonus to have on your side when backing anytime goalscorers. The Brazilian can fire in a home win – something which can be backed at 12/1 using the BuildABet with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

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Mikel Arteta says Arsenal tried their best but need to learn after defeat at Bayern Munich sent them out of the Champions League.

Arsenal and Manchester City crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday, with Liverpool and West Ham following with exits in the Europa League – so why have English sides struggled in Europe this season?

The Gunners failed to fire in a 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena, losing 3-2 on aggregate, while Real Madrid endured a Manchester City onslaught to hold onto a 1-1 draw (4-4 on aggregate) and win 4-3 on penalties.

As a result, there will be no English teams in the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 2019/20.

Despite an early penalty from Mohamed Salah, Liverpool were unable to overturn a 3-0 deficit at Atalanta, being knocked out 3-1 on aggregate. West Ham too exited the competition against newly-crowned Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen, also losing 3-1 over two legs.

Aston Villa remain England’s only representative in Europe this season, beating Lille in a dramatic penalty shoot-out in their Europa Conference League quarter-final.

Speaking to Sky Sports, Paul Merson insists it is not time for the Premier League clubs to panic, but he believes the intensity of England’s top flight is having an impact on the success of English clubs in Europe this season.

“The problem the English teams have is the Premier League,” he told Sky Sports. “The intensity of our league is off the scale.

“Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool are involved in one of the best title races in the history of the Premier League. It’s a huge battle for the title with two points separating the top three and that takes a lot out of you physically and mentally.

“I don’t want to make excuses for the teams. Arsenal didn’t turn up. They weren’t great. Man City destroyed Real but the luck wasn’t on their side.

“However, please don’t let anyone tell you the Premier League is not the greatest league in the world.”

English teams have reached the competition’s penultimate stage of the Champions League in 20 of the previous 28 campaigns. Additionally, English sides have also been winning the competition at a greater rate than ever, lifting the trophy in three of the previous five seasons.

The graphic below shows English dominance ramping up over the past six years – with the exception of 2019/20 – appearing to follow a similar trajectory enjoyed between 2003/04 and 2008/09.

But England’s worst performance on the European stage in four years has come at an unfortunate time, with the Champions League format set to change next term, with coefficient rankings providing a bonus spot in the competition for next season.

Data provider Opta predicted the Premier League had a 57 per cent chance of claiming that spot ahead of the German Bundesliga going into this round of fixtures, but that probability has plummeted to just 6.2 per cent after Wednesday evening. That will have reduced further after Liverpool and West Ham’s exits on Thursday.

The wild swing comes after German sides Borussia Dortmund and Bayern progressed in the Champions League, with Leverkusen also beating West Ham for a semi-final spot in the Europa League.

What’s caused England’s poor showing?

There is certainly an argument for fatigue. All three of England’s title-tussling titans have been eliminated. Just two points divide table-topping Manchester City and third-placed Liverpool – a battle that has demanded almost perfect levels from the sides this term.

Another aspect to consider is the intensity of the Premier League itself. England’s top flight ranks as the fastest league on the planet, according to a study published by the Football Observatory.

Meanwhile, the average number of sprints has also been increasing incrementally season on season since records began.

In addition to potential fatigue, rising physical exertions could correlate with the number of injuries.

Indeed, according to Premier Injuries, Premier League clubs have collectively lost 21,555 days due to injuries this term – equating to more than 59 years. That number has already surpassed last season’s tally (21,163 days).

Lastly, the Premier League has certainly felt slightly more chaotic this season, with teams playing higher lines, pressing more from the front and scoring a record-breaking ratio of goals.

Domestically, Arsenal have impressed defensively this term, but City and Liverpool have been more porous than in previous campaigns.

Has that growing trend to place greater risk for greater reward contributed to English sides losing the required level of solidity on the European stage?

Merson says: Premier League intensity a problem for English clubs in Europe

Sky Sports’ Paul Merson:

The problem the English teams have is the Premier League. The intensity of our league is off the scale.

Let’s start at the top with Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool. They are involved in one of the best title races in the history of the Premier League. It’s a huge battle for the title with two points separating the top three and that takes a lot out of you physically and mentally.

They are pushing each other right to the limit week in, week out, but compare that to some of the other teams around Europe and the positions they are in their leagues. The numbers blow your mind away.

In the Champions League quarter-finals, Atletico Madrid are 17 points behind leaders Real Madrid, who are eight points clear of Barcelona at the top of the table. Borussia Dortmund are fifth, seven points behind second-placed Bayern Munich, who are 16 points behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen.

PSG are 10 points clear of the rest in Ligue 1 and they didn’t even play a league game at the weekend to help them get ready for their game against Barcelona on Tuesday.

The other leagues around Europe, look at the fixtures. Real Madrid play Barcelona this weekend but they would never have played them last weekend.

Clubs around Europe have nothing to play for in their leagues and can fully focus on their European assignments. No one is in a title race like City, Arsenal and Liverpool. The Premier League clubs don’t have that luxury. They are playing in the hardest league in the world, and it has caught up with them.

‘It’s the same story for English clubs in the EL and ECL’

It’s not just the Champions League. Take a look at the Europa League and you see the same thing.

Liverpool had a huge game against Crystal Palace to contend with on Sunday but Atalanta are 32 points adrift and nowhere near the title. Roma are there too and are 28 points behind the leaders. Second-placed AC Milan are 14 points behind the leaders Inter Milan in Serie A.

Marseille are ninth in Ligue 1 and Bayer Leverkusen we’ve already mentioned. They are Bundesliga champions already.

It’s full focus on Europe and that is almost impossible for the English clubs to do.

You can even see it in the Europa Conference League.

Aston Villa are locked in a battle for Champions League football with Spurs. It would be huge for them to achieve that.

However, the other teams in the competition don’t have that concern. Fiorentina are 10th and 39 points adrift. Viktoria Plzen are 14 points from the top, Fenerbahce are two points behind in a two-team league. Lille are also 14 points behind the leaders but do have Champions League football to fight for. Olympiakos are also six points behind.

For most of the teams across Europe, all they are concentrating on is European competition.

‘PL still the best league in the world’

As a player, being involved in a run-in always brings its challenges. It is hard to keep energy levels high. But the Premier League is relentless. It’s a different ball game.

I don’t want to make excuses for the teams. Arsenal didn’t turn up. They weren’t great. Man City destroyed Real but the luck wasn’t on their side.

However, please don’t let anyone tell you the Premier League is not the greatest league in the world.

Of the teams left in the last four of the Champions League, I’m honestly not sure any of them get in the Champions League from the Premier League over a 38-game season. I’m not 100 per cent sure of that.

Look at Bayer Leverkusen, who are 16 points clear and unbeaten all season. They needed two set-piece goals to get past West Ham [in the first leg]. You could also see it from Man City vs Real Madrid. City were on a different planet to Real.

‘Man City made Real Madrid look like Luton’

Last night’s game was embarrassing.

Man City did to Real Madrid what they did to Luton.

For anybody watching that game, it was mind blowing. It was pure luck that Real got past City. They absolutely destroyed them. They embarrassed them.

It was one of the most one-sided games I’ve ever seen, and City were just bang out of luck losing on penalties.

Real Madrid cannot come away from that game and think they are a better team than Man City. They are a million miles behind them.

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